COVID-19 qualifies as a ‘black swan’ event: the distribution of product-store-time sales has fundamentally changed over the past two weeks. The answer can’t be “do nothing” or “use the same old forecasts” when your CEO asks how you plan to mitigate the recent string of stock-outs, right?

Recommendations include:

  • Shift to Expert Assumptions
  • Speed UpLook at Other Disasters
  • Prepare the Data for a Return to Machine Learning
  • Bootstrapping/Scenario Analysis